ADB cuts Cambodia’s 2026 growth forecast to 3.9% as tourism slumps

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has lowered its forecast for Cambodia's economic growth this year to 3.9%, down from 4.1%, mainly because of a sharp fall in tourism.

International visitor arrivals dropped 47.9% compared with last year, to 1.8 million in the first half of 2026. The ADB said geopolitical tensions and the closure of the Cambodia–Thailand border were among the reasons.

Factories are the bright spot

Manufacturing is doing much better. Exports of non-garment factory goods jumped 38.4% year on year, while garment exports grew 6.3% to $8 billion.

The ADB expects growth to pick up to 4.7% in 2027, helped by manufacturing, a wider range of exports and continued foreign investment.

Prices expected to rise

The bank also raised its inflation forecast to 4.7% for 2026, citing higher global oil prices and more expensive imports. It expects inflation to ease to 2.8% in 2027.

"Continued efforts to diversify the economy, improve competitiveness, support vulnerable households and strengthen resilience will be important for sustaining inclusive growth," said Yasmin Siddiqi, ADB's country director for Cambodia.

Risks ahead

The ADB warned that a possible El Niño weather pattern in late 2026 and early 2027 could hurt farming and slow the economy further.

For ordinary families, the forecast means prices may keep rising faster than last year, while jobs in tourism remain under pressure.